What if you'd invested?
Apply an amount to a tracked monthly price series and inspect its value at the final observation, price-only return and CAGR. The output is a historical calculation, not a product simulation.
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How this works
The calculation divides the starting amount by the first available monthly observation, then marks those units at each later observation. CAGR is the constant annual rate that links the first and final calculated values. The dashed line is a user-set constant-rate scenario, not National Savings, a deposit quote or evidence that such a return was available for the whole window.
The dropdown covers SYS, LUCK, BAFL, MTL and MARI within the windows in our sourced corporate-action ledger. The last available observation in each month is retained, with its actual date. Coverage ends no later than 4 September 2026 and does not advance until the action ledger is reviewed. "Max" means this reviewed window; a three-year selection can therefore contain less than three years.
The output excludes dividends, rights, taxes, broker and CDC charges, spreads, making charges and storage. Documented splits and bonus issues are adjusted; windows outside the reviewed coverage are withheld. Missing trading days still limit the series. It is therefore a reproducible price-only scenario, not an account statement or total-return record.
How to read the numbers
- Price return and CAGR answer different questions. Price return measures the whole start-to-finish change. CAGR annualizes it using actual elapsed days divided by 365.2425; for a short period, annualization can exaggerate the impression of persistence.
- The result is nominal. One current CPI reading cannot be subtracted from a multi-year CAGR to obtain the realized inflation-adjusted return. That requires matched inflation observations across the same dates.
- The dashed line is an assumption. It compounds the percentage entered in the form smoothly and ignores product eligibility, payout timing, tax, rate changes and reinvestment conditions.
- Window choice changes the story. Inspect multiple start dates and the path between them. A favorable selected window is not evidence about the next period.
Checks before interpreting a run
- Confirm the instrument and corporate actions. A ticker history can be misleading after splits, mergers, rights issues or symbol changes unless the source series is adjusted consistently.
- Use matched dates. Comparing two assets with different first or final observations introduces a timing difference that the percentage display does not explain.
- Separate price return from total return. Dividends and distributions must be added using their ex-dates and a stated reinvestment convention before calling the result total return.
Case study: a share split is not an 80% investment loss
Systems Limited resumed trading on a five-for-one share basis on 2 June 2025. The PSX notice and credit confirmation establish the event; a large price drop alone would not establish a split.
Our downloaded PSX end-of-day series records PKR 539.94 on 27 May and PKR 107.00 on 30 June 2025, the final observations present for those months. The input dates are retained so the missing trading days are visible. Apply a hypothetical PKR 100,000 and allow fractional shares to isolate the adjustment.
| Calculation | Share quantity at end | Ending value | Price return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keeping the old share count (incorrect) | 185.205764 | PKR 19,817.02 | -80.18% |
| Applying the documented 5× share count | 926.028818 | PKR 99,085.08 | -0.91% |
The apparent 80.18% loss becomes a 0.91% price decline after matching the share bases.
The reproducible formula is 100,000 ÷ 539.94 × 5 × 107. Equivalently, divide the starting price by five and retain a constant number of adjusted units. Do not do both adjustments. This is price arithmetic over two recorded dates; it excludes cash dividends, dealing costs, taxes and whole-share rounding. The backtester now follows the second method over its documented windows.
Download the calculation (CSV) · Dated inputs and sources (JSON)
Worked mechanics
If PKR 100,000 is applied at a starting price of 50, the calculation creates 2,000 units. A final observation of 75 marks those units at PKR 150,000, a 50% price return before all omitted items. For a three-year span, the displayed CAGR is approximately 14.5%, because 100,000 multiplied by 1.145 three times is close to 150,000. The tool performs the same arithmetic on the selected observations.
Rupee returns are only half the story
Every value here is denominated in rupees. That is not the same as a return in another spending currency, and the current ticker cannot supply the matched start and end exchange rates needed for conversion. The overseas investor guide explains why the liability currency matters.
What a fair backtest looks like
The dropdown is not a historical PSX universe. It contains assets currently tracked by the pipeline, so failed or delisted companies can be absent. That creates survivorship bias and prevents conclusions about the average listed stock. Start-date selection adds lookback bias, while excluded dividends and costs can move results in opposite directions. Use the investment tax guide only as a route to the current FBR sources, not as a substitute for transaction-level tax calculation.